The New Jersey State Legislature, Part Two: The Assembly

So having established a strategy for holding--and even expanding--our majority in the state Senate, let's continue these early stages of Blue The Nation by shifting our attention to the state Assembly.

Competitive Assembly Seats:

So these are kind of weird to hammer out, because of the way the New Jersey Assembly (and several other statewide chambers, as we'll be discussing in the future) apportion their seats. In New Jersey, they don't bother with trying to configure a bunch of Assembly districts separate from the 40 Senate ones. They go the easy route (no judgment), and just put two Assembly seats in each Senate district. Fair enough. It gets a little tough to read the tea leaves, though, because the general election is a top-two system. There aren't two separate seats, for which separate sets of candidates run. Everybody just runs against everybody, and the top two vote-getters win.

Pictured: The 2009 campaign for New Jersey's 38th District Assembly Seats.
The guy in the green didn't win, but he does deserve our respect for going his own way, color-wise.

I'll try my best. Starting with a 48-32 advantage, here are the seats the Democrats will need to work the hardest to defend and/or flip. Again, we're assuming no retirements, scandals, deaths, appointments, or other various monkey wrenches. I really don't think it's likely that the Republicans flip the chamber, but anything's possible. At the other extreme, since there are six Republican-held seats that could potentially be flipped, the Democrats have the opportunity to create a gargantuan 54-26 lead in this chamber. For those doing the math, that's more than a 2-to-1 advantage.

A final thought on the Assembly: these districts are deliberately drawn up to maximize partisan control of territory. In the 2011 election, not a single district split its Assembly representation between the two parties, although some came kind of close (and several have Assembly representatives of a different party than their Senator.) That trend is likely to continue in 2013. Given that reality, a lot of these seats are probably not as competitive as they might seem. At the same time, however, electorates can be tricky beasts. The voters of New Jersey have had time to re-evaluate who they are, and that might mean that Republicans can snatch a seat in a blue district, and it might mean that Democrats can snatch one in a red district.

District 1.

The Incumbents: The two D1 seats are currently held by Democrats. Nelson Albano has been in the Assembly since 2005, and Matthew Milam has been there since 2007.

Why they're weak: Given that they had, between the two of them, 10 years of service time, and given that they were running in a district that had been sending Democrats to the Assembly for awhile, you'd have thought they'd have a relatively easy time holding onto their seats. Not so much. Between the four candidates running, there were 88,967 votes (with two votes per ballot due to the way the elections are run.) Albano, the top vote-getter, was separated from the lowest vote-getter, Republican Suzanne Walters, by just 3,984 votes. Milam, who got the second most, only beat out the third place finisher, Republican Samuel Fiocchi, by 1,051 votes, or 1.2% of the total vote. The Democratic candidates, together, only beat the Republicans about 53-47. Hardly a commanding victory.

Albano looks the safer of the two. He beat his closest Republican challenger by about 4% of the total vote and he's got decent seniority, as he will have held his seat for eight years by the time of the 2013 election. Still, 4% isn't a lot of daylight, and the Democrats should be looking to protect him. A much bigger concern, however, is Milam. In a district in which about 45,000 ballots were cast, Milam eked out victory by just over 1,000 votes. At minimum, a little over 2,500 of Albano's voters didn't vote for Milam.

Why they're strong: Albano and Milam will both benefit from a strong District 1 ticket. On the Senate side, Jeff Van Drew (from the previous entry) is well-liked and has quite a long history in New Jersey politics. His seat is, as already mentioned, not completely safe, but it's not all that likely to be flipped, either. Look for Van Drew, Albano, and Milam to campaign together as much as possible. Van Drew isn't likely to be dragged down by the two more vulnerable Assembly members, but Albano and Milam stand to gain a lot by associating themselves with him.

Price Tag: Incredibly, Milam didn't raise a dime in 2011. That seems impossible in this day and age. But he didn't. That's not going to cut it in 2013. Republicans are only going to spend more in the coming years than they did in 2012, and you're going to see that money trickle down to the smaller races. Albano raised about $100,000. That's not going to be enough either. Although they'll benefit from strong spending on Van Drew's end, they'll also need to be making expenditures of their own. At least a million bucks needs to be shelled out by the candidates, the party, and the independent expenditures to make sure these seats stay blue.

Even white boys got to shout.

District 2.

The Incumbent: Chris Brown. Yep, that's really his name.

Why he's weak: Both of these seats are currently Republican-held. John Amodeo, who's been a D2 Assembly member since 2007, is probably safe. He beat his closest Democratic challenger by 6.2% in 2011, and he'll have racked up six years of service by the time the 2013 election rolls around. Chris Brown—not to be confused with the singer who likes to hit women, and also not to be confused with the other Chris Brown in the New Jersey Assembly, also a Republican—is more vulnerable. He hasn't particularly distinguished himself during his time in the statehouse. About 1,900 of Amodeo's voters, at minimum, didn't vote for Brown the last time around.

If everybody named Chris Brown is an asshole, then there's a really
good chance that this guy's name is Chris Brown.

Why he's strong: That's not to say Brown's going to be easy to pick off. He beat his closest Democratic rival in D2 by 4.1% in 2011, and he didn't even have the benefit of incumbency that year. He'll have that benefit this time. That's about all I got to say for the guy. I'm not saying he's weak, not like some other folks in the Assembly are, but he sure isn't strong either.

"Welcome to the 2012 Convention of People Named Chris Brown!"

Who can beat him: Damon Tyner, the top Democratic vote-getter in 2011, wouldn't be a bad choice. He's a hot-shot rising star in the New Jersey legal community and performed pretty well in the 2011 election. Running out the guy who just lost two years ago might feel like a mistake, though, to some Jersey Dems. So who do they turn to? I don't have the faintest idea who they will turn to, but I know who they should draft: Patrick J. Kennedy.

Incredibly, there is currently an adult Kennedy, of sound mind and body, who's already served quite a few terms as a Rhode Island Congressman, who has somehow been allowed to not be currently active in politics. This is a tragedy that must be rectified. Kennedys are a precious natural resource for the Democrats that should not be squandered. Patrick J. Kennedy is the son of the illustrious lion of the Senate himself, the late Ted Kennedy.

Now it's true that Patrick has got a looooong history of substance abuse problems, although they appear to be behind him, and he suffers from bipolar disorder. He's also apparently not taking his medication, having replaced it with a physical fitness regimen, which is not, as far as I know, something that the medical community would endorse as a feasible treatment plan. They also might be a bit gun-shy around the residency requirement. While Kennedy could definitely prove that he's resided within the Second District for the required two years, he did vote in Rhode Island in 2012. It was just that sort of murkiness around the residency requirement that torpedoed Carl Lewis' run for state Senate in 2011.

What's this we heard about a Convention of People Named Chris Brown?

Reasons Kennedy might not accept being drafted by the Dems: He appears to have just decided not to be a politician anymore. This, of course, is the biggest obstacle to getting him in the race. Those close to him have said that he lost his heart for politics after the death of his father. But that was then and this is now, and it's an exciting—but difficult—time for the Democratic Party. I believe that if the New Jersey Democrats made a strong pitch, Kennedy would answer the call. And I think that if he ran for Assembly, he'd win.

He'd make a dent in the traditionally Republican areas of the district like Brigantine and the purple-but-leaning-blue Atlantic City. In so doing, he'd probably also boost his ticketmates—and Whelan will need every boost he can get. He'd also be able to bring his considerable personal finances to bear on his own race and on the races of his ticketmates. Patrick Kennedy makes all the sense in the world for the Democratic ticket in the Second District.

Who's my pick for the final slot on the Democratic ticket? If it isn't Tyner, the options look like Atlantic City Mayor Lorenzo Langford and Atlantic City 2nd Ward Councilman Martin Small. Langford is seen as relatively popular and responsive to his constituents, and he's got a good profile statewide. On the other hand, he's been savaged by Christie in the media for his response to Hurricane Sandy, and although it appears that Christie's charge that Langford told his citizens not to evacuate is unfounded, it remains to be seen whether Langford will be damaged by the claim. Perhaps more importantly, Langford and Whelan don't get along AT ALL. They've frequently clashed publicly and privately. They've run against one another. They've endorsed opposing primary candidates. They've fought bitterly, and everybody knows it. Even if you could get them to kiss and make up for a unified D2 ticket, would the voters buy it?

"Wait wait wait...are we ALL named Chris Brown?"

Small, on the other hand, is Whelan's guy. Whelan backed Small in the bitter primary contest for the mayor's office in 2009. If the local Democratic machine is split into the Langford faction and the Whelan faction, Small is firmly in the latter encampment. This is meaningful, because even if Langford is the better candidate for the Assembly race, you want to protect your incumbent above everything else. Langford could hurt Whelan by being on the ticket, and he might even drag down the entire Democratic ticket to defeat. Although Small had to deal with some ethics charges after the 2009 primary, he was cleared on all counts—and besides, it's Atlantic City. Atlantic City was built on Nucky Johnson's corrupt Republican machine politics. I think they can look past it.

So although I think that, in a vacuum, Langford is my preferred candidate, I'd rather see Small get the nod due to the way the legislative elections are contested, with three-member partisan tickets, in New Jersey. (If the Dems want to avoid taking sides in the Atlantic City rivalry at all, of course, they can just tap Tyner again.)

Price Tag: In 2011, state Democratic leaders made a significant effort to support their candidates in D2. They'll probably do that again. But campaign surrogacy won't be enough. Financial support will be key, and so will drafting good candidates. Remember, this district is already a Republican target due to Jim Whelan's vulnerability on the Senate side of the ticket. Brown will benefit from a lot of money and support being shoveled into the campaign of whoever challenges Whelan. Democrats and their allies need to answer in kind. These races are going to be expensive as hell. I hope the Democrats and their allies plan to spend about $4 million on the D2 Assembly races. If they do that, and if they run an Assembly ticket of Kennedy/Small or Kennedy/Tyner, I think they can steal an Assembly seat and maybe even sweep the district.

Actually, this guy's name isn't Chris Brown. It's Blake.

District 3.

The Incumbent: Celeste Riley.

Why she's weak: John Burzichelli, an Assembly member for the district since 2001, is probably safe. Although he defeated his closest Republican rival by just a hair over 5% of the total vote, he's weathered enough elections at this point to be considered a safe bet. His district likes him and they're going to vote him back into office. Celeste Riley, on the other hand, should get ready for a fight. Riley's tenure only goes back to 2009, and she only fended off her closest Republican challenger by 3.8% of the total vote. What's particularly concerning here is that while about 260 of top Republican vote-getter Bob Villare's ballots didn't go to ticketmate Domenick DiCicco, over 1200 of Burzichelli's ballots didn't go to Riley. The imbalance there suggests that while there might have been a few voters pulling the lever for a split ticket, there were a lot of voters who liked Burzichelli but were so unenthusiastic about Riley that they just didn't vote for a second candidate. That's not good.

Why she's strong: Regardless of all this, Riley probably is one of the less vulnerable incumbents in these competitive races. At the top of her district's ticket is current Senate President Stephen Sweeney, who has won a series of decisive victories in his campaigns. Even if Sweeney runs for Frank Lautenberg's Senate seat or for Governor, both ideas that have a lot of traction around New Jersey, the party machine will probably see to it that District 3 stays solidly blue.

Price Tag: A million bucks should do the trick.

District 7.

The Incumbents: Herb Conaway and Troy Singleton.

"I mean, he doesn't even make good music! Michael Jackson made Thriller,
Bobby Brown was in New Edition, John Lennon was in The Beatles...what
has Chris Brown even done that would warrant support from anyone, ever?"

Why they're weak: This pair of Democratic incumbents should be ready for war in 2013. Conaway was the top vote-getter the last time around, and he only beat the fourth-place vote-getter, Republican Chris Halgas, by 2.3%. Singleton, the second-place vote-getter, only beat the third-place vote-getter, Republican James Keenan, by 1.4%. Going into the election, redistricting had made it a split incumbency, with two Democratic incumbents and one Republican. The Republican and one of the Democrats didn't seek re-election.

The lack of a Republican incumbent may well have been the decisive factor in handing the purple district to the Democrats, but Conaway and Singleton can't expect to ride incumbency to the win in 2013. One big reason they can't is that the incumbent state Senator for the district, Diane Allen, is a Republican who can be expected to work hard for their Republican challengers. And her coattails are strong: while the 2011 Assembly races in the district were nailbiters, Allen coasted to re-election by 14 points.

Why they're strong: Because they're pretty good at politics and campaigning. Their vulnerability is not so much about who they are as it is about where they are. This is a tough district. They're knuckleball pitchers in a hitter-friendly ballpark. They just need to show up and do their jobs every single day of the campaign. They can win this thing just like they won it last time. And this isn't just me being rah-rah. See the previous entry, where I pretty much called the race for Democrat Jim Whelan's generic Republican opponent.

Price Tag: This district will be heavily targeted by the New Jersey GOP in the general election. The New Jersey Democrats had better be prepared to return heavy fire. Conaway and Singleton spent about $1.5 million on their races in 2011. They, and their allies, should be prepared to double that in 2013.

District 8.

The Weird Situation: Elections in the Eighth District were a mess in 2011. First, one of the Republican incumbents resigned after the primary due to accusations of racism against his wife. Then both of the Democrat primary winners dropped out of the race. All three candidates were replaced on the ballot by their respective parties. One of those replacements was the other Republican Chris Brown. The Republicans won the election handily.

The Most Interesting Chris Brown In The World.
"I don't always give a shit about other people, but when I do, I don't."

A couple things. This is definitely a redder district. There were almost twice as many Republican primary voters as Democratic primary voters. The Republicans each garnered about 20,000 votes and the Democrats each garnered about 12,000. Doesn't look like a close race, nor does it look like a close district. However, it should be noted that the Democratic Party had to completely switch gears midway through the campaign when it lost both its candidates. Sure, the Republicans lost one too, but they were the incumbent party here. The Democrats were challenging, which is already an uphill fight.

If I were the New Jersey Democrats, I'd eschew the usual method of trying to find two good candidates and focus on drafting one exceptional one. He or she would need to be a strong campaigner, and—although I don't usually like this strategy—he or she would need to be more of a centrist, given the redness of this district. Even in 2011, with the district's Democratic ticket in disarray, Democrats were able to muster about 12,000 down-the-ticket ballots. A strong candidate here could pick up another 4,000-5,000 votes to make the race interesting.

Who to Draft: The trouble is that there aren't a lot of high-profile players on the Democratic bench in the Eighth District. The aforementioned Carl Lewis might be the perfect candidate here, but that would of course necessitate him not running for the district's Senate seat. There are pros and cons either way on that, but let's assume that Lewis is the Dems' strongest candidate in the district, and that the strongest candidate should take on not only the biggest race, but the weakest Republican incumbent. So Lewis is out for the Assembly races.

Franco Harris, a beloved New Jersey-born sports icon, has roots in the district and has become politically active in the last decade, but he's based out of Pennsylvania now. While I think the New Jersey Democrats would be well-served to try and lure him back home—he's likely to have much more cachet as a politician in New Jersey than he would in Pennsylvania—they can't get him in time for the 2013 election. Philanthropist Earl W. Stafford also has roots in the district, and it's a sin that the Democrats haven't gotten him involved in politics yet, but his residency is murky-leaning-problematic. He basically is a Virginian now, but he does maintain a residence in the district. Hillary Clinton won the New York Senate seat with a residency status much less clear than that. Still, it's not much to bank on, and I doubt his name has come up in New Jersey Democratic discussions.

So, who are we left with? Who's got a high profile, a decent political campaigning background, and an ability to play to the center? ...sigh...Dina Matos. Formerly Dina McGreevey. Ex-wife of former Governor Jim McGreevey. Told you I'd be mentioning that guy again. McGreevey was the guy who resigned after it was discovered that he gave a high-level job to a gay lover. Dina Matos is his ex-wife. You can Google her yourself, but suffice it to say that I find her a bit distasteful.

Man, you can tell she's a total Chris Brown. It's in the eyes.

She has profile, yes, but not all publicity is good publicity. Not in politics. She has a background in campaigning on a statewide level, and probably has contacts. She's hinted, occasionally, at political ambition. I know she can play to the center because she's on record as against gay marriage. Can she win? ...with enough money, yeah, sure. The Eighth District is one big sack of chaos anyway. Dina Matos. Two million bucks. Give it a shot. Ugh, let's move on. Up next: the Eleventh District, and much much more.

Also in the next installment of Blue The Nation: 100% fewer Chris Brown jokes.