What Happened? What's Next?

“Where do we come from? What are we? Where are we going?”

What happened in 2012?

Cheer up, buddy. We did okay.

We held onto the Presidency.

We increased our Senate majority from 53-47 to 55-45. We actually came quite close to a 58-42 Senate majority. Shelley Berkley (lost by 1.2%), Richard Carmona (lost by 3.9%), and Bob Kerrey (lost by 16.2%, but polled much closer for most of the race) couldn't quite pull it off, but it really could have happened.

We made a small but important dent in the House Republican caucus, going from a 240-190 deficit in the chamber (counting extant vacancies) to 234-201. Analysis, by the way, has shown that Democrats probably would have narrowed that gap to around 222-213 or even 220-215 under pre-2010 districting maps. And had the Democrats, rather than the Republicans, been in charge of the 2010 gerrymander? The House would be ours today.

In a disturbing trend that we've seen in four consecutive elections now, Democrats lost ground in the battle for control over governorships. Republicans now hold 30 to Democrats' 19 (20 if you count Lincoln Chafee, who is an independent and a former Republican but votes more progressive than a lot of Democrats do.) Still, we only lost one governorship, our best showing since 2008, when we added one. This is something the national party needs to start focusing on.

In the ranks of statewide secretaries of state, the balance of power did not shift, as the incumbent party won every single election. Republicans continue to hold a 28-20 advantage. However, it's notable that in six of those seven races, the Democrats were defending the seat.

The ranks of state attorneys general changed slightly, but neither party improved its standing. Democrats and Republicans each picked off two of the opposing party's Attorney General seats, preserving a 26-25 Republican advantage. Again, however, Democrats were defending more seats.

The ranks of state treasurers (or equivalent positions) did not change. Democrats were defending in seven of the nine treasurer races, and they held onto their seven while the Republicans held onto their treasurer seats in conservative strongholds North Dakota and Utah. Republicans hold a 26-24 lead in treasurer seats.

In the statehouses, Democrats gained a bit of ground, although the goal going forward has to be building toward statehouse majorities in 2020, for redistricting. Republicans held a 30-20 advantage in state Senates. That figure includes a tie in the Virginia Senate that went to the GOP due to their control of the Lt. Governor's seat, as well as a tie in Alaska that went to the Democrats due to a coalition consisting of all ten Democrats and six of the ten Republicans. That figure also includes Republican control of the Nebraska unicameral legislature, which is officially nonpartisan but de facto Republican-controlled. The landscape changed a bit, although ultimately the tally remains 30-20.

Update: Not long after I originally wrote this summary of Election 2012, five New York Senate Democrats bolted from their caucus to form a coalition with the Republicans in the chamber. A sixth Senator, Simcha Felder, is not part of their Independent Democratic Conference, but he will also be caucusing with the Republicans. In a little over a month, what initially looked like a 34-29 Democratic majority was winnowed down to a 27-36 deficit. And THIS is why winning every possible seat matters, folks. So we actually LOST ground in the state Senates this time around, although time will tell how long the coalition lasts.

In the state Houses of Representatives (or whatever various things the states call them), Democrats made gains. Going into the election, Republicans held 31 Houses to Democrats' 17, with one chamber tied. After the election, Democrats had cut the advantage to 28-21. Astute mathematicians will note that there are only 49 Houses, as Nebraska does not have one.

In Alabama, voters extended payments made to the Forever Wild Land Trust and authorized general obligation bonds. In Alaska, voters approved a general obligation bond measure for transportation projects. In Arizona, voters rejected a power play by Jan Brewer to gain control over judicial appointments, voted down a corporate tax break and a sales tax hike, and rejected an essentially secessionist measure to declare state sovereignty over state natural resources.

Arkansas voters legalized medical marijuana and approved a tax hike to build a statewide four-lane highway (which seems like something that should have been built about 50 years ago, but better late than never.) Californians voted to tax the rich to pay for the education system (and for a progressive prison realignment program), rejected an attempt to strip union workers of their political voice, reformed the three-strikes law, and voted for a tax hike on multistate businesses.

Colorado voters legalized the SHIT out of recreational marijuana. In Florida, a ballot measure countermanding federal penalties for not buying health insurance failed to receive the 60% voter approval it needed to become law. Floridians also narrowly defeated a revenue cap, roundly rejected an attempt by the legislature to assert control over the judiciary, gave the thumbs-down to abortion restrictions, and said no to a measure to allow the state to fund religious organizations (SERIOUSLY.)

In Idaho, voters struck down a costly education bill opposed by the NEA that would have negatively impacted teacher salaries. In Louisiana, voters overwhelmingly enacted protections of the Medicaid Trust Fund for the Elderly. They also voted to protect public employee retirement systems. Maine has already received attention for approving same-sex marriage, but voters also approved three vital infrastructural bond issues. Maryland also approved same-sex marriage. Additionally, Maryland voters approved the Maryland DREAM Act.

Massachusetts voters approved medical marijuana. I would like to point out that although Question 2, the Death With Dignity Act, was defeated, it lost extremely narrowly. With only one precinct still not reporting in on the issue, the most votes it will have lost by is about 65,000. That bodes will for the future of this debate.

Although voters in Michigan didn't choose to protect the right of workers to collectively bargain, they did reject an obscene power grab by the Republican establishment to take over counties and municipalities. They also rejected an effort to hamstring the state's budget process by making it extremely difficult to raise taxes, and several other conservative initiatives. I also want to say that I kind of admire Michigan voters for apparently rejecting the very idea of ballot measures, as every single one failed. The only one that even got close was the measure to protect collective bargaining. Personally I despise the ballot measure system, and there's a certain part of me that says, “You're okay, Michigan.”

Minnesota voters said no to an anti-gay-marriage constitutional amendment. It should be noted that gay marriage is still illegal in Minnesota anyway. Blessedly, Minnesota voters also rejected a voter-suppression law requiring voters to have a photo ID. Nevada voters approved a measure that would allow the state legislature to convene special sessions for extraordinary circumstances. Hilariously, the Legislature only meets once EVERY OTHER YEAR under the current system. New Hampshire rejected an attempt by Republican legislators to override the system of checks and balances and give the legislature power over the courts. They also rejected a Constitutional amendment that would have banned new income taxes.

In New Jersey, voters approved a $750 million bond issue to upgrade research universities and public colleges, as well as community colleges. New Mexico voters authorized almost $150 million in bonds for various infrastructure developments and improvements. Voters also approved separating the office of the public defender from the state government in order to avoid conflicts of interest. North Dakota voters FINALLY GOT RID OF THE POLL TAX. They also made it a felony to maliciously harm domestic animals and banned smoking at indoor workplaces. While Oklahoma voters approved a host of horrific, psychotic conservative-wet-dream measures, they also approved a sensible bond issue to preserve the state's water resources.

In Oregon, voters approved a measure that eases the government's ability to respond to natural disasters. Voters also approved a measure that would divert surplus corporate tax revenue to K-12 funding and rejected a phase-out of the estate and inheritance taxes. In Rhode Island, voters approved a cool $209 million in various bond issues for vital infrastructure development.

South Dakota voters approved something about a cement plant and money and schools. I think I'm in favor of it, but I really don't know. SoDak voters rejected a confusing measure about corporations that I think I'm against (but again, who can tell.) Voters also rejected a sales tax increase that would have funded schools and Medicaid. On the one hand, sales taxes are regressive; on the other hand, schools and Medicaid are awesome. I'm going to blame this on the people who wrote the initiative. They should have figured out a better thing to tax than basic necessities. Washington legalized pot! They also legalized gay marriage! SEX AND DRUGS BABY

And finally, Montana gets its own special section. Montana continued to be unpindownable in 2012. They voted for Romney, for a Democratic Senator, a Republican representative in the House, a Democratic Governor and Lieutenant Governor, a Republican Attorney General, a Democratic Secretary of State, a Democratic Insurance Commissioner, and a Democratic State Auditor. The State Senate went from 27-22 in favor of Republicans to 27-23 in favor of Republicans. The State House went from 68-32 in favor of Republicans to 63-37 in favor of Republicans.

Meanwhile, voters decided to require proof of citizenship in order to obtain state services, to require parental notification of a minor's abortion, to amend and sharpen the focus of the extant medical marijuana program (which was itself approved by ballot measure in 2004, the same year Montana overwhelmingly voted for noted anti-pot President George W. Bush), to overrule the national health care mandate, and to oppose Citizens United by limiting corporate political spending and defining corporations as "not human beings with constitutional rights." Stay weird, Montana.

What's ahead in 2013?

Yep, we're already going to have some off-year election stuff going on in 2013. And not just chump-change special elections either.

In Indiana, they're going to put a gay marriage ban on the ballot. They will probably do so in Pennsylvania. In Iowa, they probably won't, but it's still a possibility. There's also a chance that Iowa will have a ballot measure asking voters to approve an anti-immigration law modeled after Arizona's. In Ohio, there may be a ballot measure to legalize gay marriage, although the guy behind the effort seems a little sketchy. In Wisconsin, they're going to try and amend the state constitution to enshrine a photo ID voter-suppression law.

They're going to have a gubernatorial election in New Jersey. Early picks for the Democratic nomination to take on Chris Christie seem to favor Cory Booker. There's also a gubernatorial election in Virginia, with the frontrunners looking like Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and Democrat Terry McAuliffe, former DNC chair. Virginia will be electing a new Attorney General as well, as the current one is challenging Bolling in the Republican primary, but no clear frontrunners have emerged.

New Jersey will be holding legislative elections. All 40 state Senate seats, currently held by 24 Democrats and 16 Republicans, are up for grabs. The 80 seats in the General Assembly, currently held by 48 Democrats and 32 Republicans, are also up for grabs. Curiosity: the Democrats hold exactly 60% of the seats in both chambers of the state Legislature. Hard to say how the proportions will shake out, but the Dems are likely to maintain control of both houses. The gubernatorial election should have some impact; if the Democratic nominee performs exceedingly well, the Dems could pick up a handful of seats, while if Christie performs like most observers assume he will, his coattails could give Republicans a couple pickups.

Finally, Virginia's House of Delegates will be holding elections. In the same 2011 election that gave Virginia a deadlocked 20-20 Senate (with the aforementioned Republican Lt. Gov Bolling breaking the tie in favor of the Republicans), Virginians elected 67 Republicans (plus one independent who caucuses Republican) and 32 Democrats to the House. All 100 seats will be up for grabs in the 2013 elections. The deadlocked state Senate will not hold its next election until 2015.

Of course, there are always the possibilities of retirements, deaths, and what-have-yous leading to other notable special elections. And there's still plenty of time for propositions to reach the threshold for various statewide ballots. Election 2013 has begun.

Up Next: The New Jersey State Senate!