The Virginia House of Delegates, Part Two

Aaaaaaaaand we're back, with the second round of races for Virginia's 2013 election for the House of Delegates. Strap on and strap in for some more Blue the Nation.

District 14

Incumbent: Danny Marshall III.

This isn't Danny Marshall III. But it is Kevin Kline in a publicity shot
for Wild Wild West, in which he portrayed a U.S. Marshal. And let me
just say that while the Republican Party is awful, Wild Wild West
was--and is--even worse for America.

Why he's weak: This is a weird one, because nobody ran against Danny last time out. But I'm honestly not quite sure why. There are a good solid dependable 12,000 Democratic votes in Danville. That's about how many Danville voters pulled the lever for Barack Obama and Mark Warner in 2008, and they came out again in similar numbers for Obama and Tim Kaine in 2012. To put that in perspective, that number is higher than the number of people who voted for Danny Marshall III in 2009, when he won by about a 2-1 margin.

Why he's strong: He doesn't really seem to be, except that the Democrats haven't had anybody legitimate to run against him. He's basically never been tested in serious electoral combat.

Who can beat him: Danville Mayor Sherman Saunders. I'm frankly shocked that Saunders hasn't run for this seat before now. He's quite popular in his city, which, as noted, is very blue. He's probably the best way the Democrats could be sure to bring out those 12,000 Obama/Warner/Kaine voters instead of the tiny trickle who turn out for the off-year legislative elections. Get Saunders to run, and I'd almost be willing to say it's a can't-lose proposition. I'd say his presence in the race pretty much guarantees at least 10,000 Democratic votes and 5,000 Republican votes.

Additionally, he was for years a fixture in Pittsylvania County, part of which is in this district, through Pittsylvania Community Action. And while Pittsylvania and Henry Counties are both conservative, their most populous centers aren't in the district. Out of those two partial rural counties, does Danny Marshall III draw 5,000 more voters than Sherman Saunders does in an off-year election? I don't think he does. I don't think he can.

Hold up hold up hold up. You're going to name a place Pittsylvania...
borrowing the name of a major city in Pennsylvania...and also borrowing
the name of the actual Pennsylvania...and we're in Virginia
somehow? Me and George are both confused by this.

Price Tag: This shouldn't even be that expensive. I'll actually give Saunders a pass on heavy fundraising here. Thanks to Danville, he can get by with $150,000, which shouldn't be difficult to get at all.

District 21

Incumbent: Ronald Villanueva

Pictured: Something way cooler than Ronald Villanueva.

Why he's weak: Look at his two elections to the House. Yes, he won both, and yes, the first was against a Democratic incumbent. Acknowledged. You know how many votes he defeated incumbent Robert Mathieson by? 14. Yeah. Fourteen votes. And oh man, I hope there are fifteen Democrats in the Twenty-First who feel like dogshit for forgetting to go out and vote in 2009. And then, in 2011, against a no-name Democratic challenger who raised basically no money to his $350K, he won by about 1600 votes. That's better than 14, but still pretty weak sauce given the conditions. And keep in mind, both of these elections were very much during the Republican wave cycle of 2009-2011.

"He lost by how many? Oh man. I think I'm going to just neglect to tell anybody that me and my 14
friends skipped the whole voting thing and went straight to the Victory Barbecue in my backyard."

Why he's strong: Redistricting broadened his district. I haven't seen the data his colleagues looked at when they did that, but I assume they feel it makes his seat safer. I have my doubts.

Who can beat him: Bobby Mathieson. Bobby lost by fourteen votes in 2009. Bobby's currently a U.S. Marshal for Virginia's Eastern District. Come back to politics, Bobby. Leave the Marshaling to someone who gives a damn about stuff like that. (I'm not sure what a Marshal even is. It sounds like an old-timey law enforcement officer, but this ain't the Wild Wild West.)

And we're back.

Price Tag: Seriously, though, Mathieson is a better campaigner, a better fundraiser, and a better politician than Villanueva. And the district is not red. It went slightly blue in the national elections in 2012, in fact. Oh, also in 2008. He lost in 2009 because of the GOP wave. He won't lose in 2013. Give the boy a million bucks and watch the fireworks.

District 64

Incumbent: Rick Morris.

Why he's weak: This is basically the same situation as the Twenty-First. A GOP challenger picked this seat off in the 2009-2011 Republican wave cycle, but it's not a red district. It's true that it's been redistricted to make it purple rather than the solid blue it once was, but Democrat Bill Barlow can get this one back if he wants it back.

Pictured: Bill Barlow, in my imagination.

Why he's strong: Morris won his first election a lot more handily than Villanueva did. Like 10.6% handily. The district's been redrawn to be a lot more of a toss-up than it used to be.

Who can beat him: I'd say, again, go with the guy who got robbed in the first place. Barlow's more than able to take this seat back. It'll take money and effort and work, but I say go for it. However, the old fella's getting on in age, and it's possible he's not out for revenge. It's just as possible his party wants someone else to get involved. If either of these is the case, I vote for James P. Councill III, the current mayor of Franklin, an independent city that votes reliably, strongly Democratic.

My reasoning is similar to the Sherman Saunders situation. If you're looking for a way to make sure a few extra blue votes head to the polls in these off-year elections, it sure can't hurt to have your candidate be the mayor of a bunch of them. Now, granted, Franklin isn't going to be the largest voting bloc in the district, but you also figure a few more of them come out to vote (in 2012, half of them did) if it's their popular mayor—from a popular local political family—running for office. I'm not as bullish on JC3 locking up this race simply by being in it, not the way I'm bullish on Saunders, but I think he's the best man for the job.

Price Tag: A million bucks.

District 87

Incumbent: David Ramadan

Can't come up with any inoffensive Ramadan jokes, so here's this instead.

Why he's weak: So remember how Bobby Mathieson lost to Ronald Villanueva by 14 votes? This isn't quite that bad, but David Ramadan (great name, by the way) defeated Mike Kondratick (credit where it's due, also a pretty good name) by a grand whopping total of 51 votes. You think your vote doesn't count? Let this be a lesson: Between D87 and D21, 65 votes were all that stood between the Virginia Democratic Party and a chance to avoid its worst electoral performance in history.

There's a reason for the weak performance: the Eighty-Seventh is a blue district! Both of the counties from which it draws territory are Obama/Warner/Kaine counties. And not by a little. Loudoun County in particular is home to some very active and boisterous progressives. I recommend Loudoun Progress.

Also, and I want to put this as delicately as I can...David Ramadan was born in Beirut. His last name is Ramadan, as in the Muslim holiday. The state under discussion is Virginia. The counties in question are overwhelmingly white. I'm just going to say I think he might be vulnerable to a primary challenge from within his own party.

Why he's strong: Nope. They didn't even give him any cool committees.

Who can beat him: Anybody. Run Kondratick again and he'll win, but you can probably run anybody here.

Pictured: One of several viable Democratic candidates mulling a run. And you know
he's serious because he's not making any puns about graveyards or corpses or anything.

Price Tag: Million bucks.

District 93

Incumbent: Michael Watson

Why he's weak: This was one of several Democratic seats that the GOP snatched in 2011. Some of them, they got because redistricting made them redder seats, but some of them, the ones I've been highlighting here, they just got because it was a wave year. This is another one of those. Watson defeated incumbent Democrat Robin Abbott by 3.6%, just 573 votes. Abbott was a first-term Delegate and Watson outraised her by a good $200K. The GOP wave did the rest. Watson now finds himself in basically the same position as Abbott was in last time: first-term incumbent, running against what is likely to be an oppositional wave election.

It sucks when you crash in the middle of a wave.

Why he's strong: Not really seeing it, to be honest. This is another bluer district that the Republicans just kind of snagged in 2011. I don't think they'll hold it in 2013. When you look at the Ninety-Third, you see that it has clear population centers in Williamsburg and a slice of Newport News. Those are both cities, and very blue ones at that. In a district that saw about 16,000 votes cast for its Delegate seat last time around, you're going to see a clear Democratic voting bloc coming from those places.

Who can beat him: Here I'd go, again, with a mayor. Either McKinley Price, of Newport News—technically an independent but quite clearly progressive—or Clyde Haulman, of Williamsburg. My preference would be Price, as he's younger and more dynamic, but I'm not sure he actually lives in the Ninety-Third, so I'll go with Haulman. Haulman's no slouch, and his presence on the ballot could be sure to bring out the fullest possible force of the Williamsburg electorate.

Price Tag: All together now...one million dollars.

Up next: ...more of this!